The Phillies have a lineup problem – and the only real solution in the near future is to have faith in a group of players that have done little to earn the benefit of the doubt.
For way too long, the Phillies have relied on hot stretches from the top three bats, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, to keep them afloat this season. Harper, who went on the IL on Saturday with right wrist inflammation, will be gone for weeks. Schwarber, one of the best hitters in baseball, is cooling off. So is Turner. These are the pillars of the Phillies offense, but it’s unfair to expect them to carry the team through 162 games.
Someone – anyone else, really – has to step up. It’s not a matter of saving the season. They will at least be a wild card team. There are pretenders in the National League that will reveal themselves soon. The Phillies are not one of them because their starting rotation is too good to let them fall out of it.
They essentially have four months to figure out how to be a more complete lineup. Between now and October, there may be a couple of tweaks to the personnel. But it’s nearly impossible for a team to turn over three to four spots in the lineup at one trade deadline. What you see now is likely what the Phillies will roll with moving forward.
It’s frustrating, but the most realistic path to getting back on track is internal improvement. There’s a long list of guys that have underperformed relative to expectations – and it starts with the leadoff hitter.
The Phillies love Bryson Stott. He steals bases at an incredibly efficient rate and is as reliable as it gets at second base. There are reasons why Stott has spent more time than any other hitter in the leadoff spot this year, and it’s not just because he works long at-bats. Stott hitting leadoff is symbolic of the Phillies’ faith in him.
It’s time for Stott to reward his team for showing that faith. He got off to a good start when the Phillies made him the leadoff hitter against right-handed starters in mid-April, but has been slumping for weeks. He has four extra-base hits and a .497 OPS since May 1.
This is his fourth year in the big leagues. He has posted an OPS+ above league average once in those four years. The Phillies believed a nerve issue was the biggest reason behind his struggles last year. It’s been more of the same this year.
That faith, however, will buy Stott time to figure it out while likely hitting in a lower spot in the order. One player who might not have benefit of time, despite having a better offensive track record as a Phillie, is Brandon Marsh.
Marsh, unlike Stott, has not been reliable at his position. He has recovered a bit from his hitless April, posting a .290 average with a .790 OPS since May 1. He’s in a weird spot. He is striking out less and walking more. He is making a conscious effort to go the opposite way with his swing, and it has worked to a certain extent. But the power is not there. His slugging percentage is down more than 100 points from last year. He is not alone. Only four qualified Phillies hitters, Schwarber, Turner, Harper and Nick Castellanos, have a slugging percentage above .400.
Fair or not, there is an unscientific watchability factor with Marsh. The misplays in the outfield are part of it. His whiff rate has improved from 27.5% last year to 21.7% in 2025, but the quality of contact has not. Entering this season, the narrative was about hitting lefties. Really, the Phillies could desperately use the version of Marsh they had last year, when he hit 15 home runs and had a .792 OPS against righties.Â
The lack of viable center field replacements on the trade market, and Johan Rojas’ slow development at the plate, is what will ultimately keep Marsh in Philadelphia for at least the remainder of the year.
A lack of other options might also save Max Kepler’s job. He was good in April, got off to a hot start in May and has looked lost at the plate ever since the Phillies came home from the Tampa-Cleveland road trip.
He is also one of the few hitters outside of the top three that are capable of going on a scorching hot streak that saves his season and carries the team for a stretch of games. He did it two years ago as a member of the Minnesota Twins, when he had a .688 OPS in the first half and a .926 OPS in the second half. Some red flags have emerged in recent weeks. He is chasing a lot more than he did during his first six weeks with the club. He has gotten away from working at-bats and getting on-base in favor of taking big swings to make up for his struggles.
He has only three hits since his game-tying home run in the ninth inning against the A’s Mason Miller on May 24.
In the other corner outfield spot is another interesting case. It’s unfair to lump Castellanos in with the other struggling hitters in the lineup, but it is fair to expect more out of him. His .744 OPS is good for a 106 OPS+ in this run-scoring environment, but it’s strange that expectations regarding Castellanos’ offensive output are as low as they are. He is a $100 million player, and theoretically, should be held to the same standards as Turner, Harper and Schwarber.
His recovery from a truly horrible first year with the team is a great story. Castellanos has also had some memorable hits during the last two postseasons, but with Harper out, this would be a great time for Castellanos to step up and provide more power in the middle of the order.
Power, or the lack of it, is really the theme of the entire year. The Phillies are 15th in MLB in home runs at 68. Nearly 30% of those home runs are from Schwarber. Monday’s opponents, the Chicago Cubs, have six players that would be tied for second with Harper in home runs on the Phillies.
But if there are more home runs to be hit, where are they coming from? Alec Bohm, like Marsh, has recovered from a rough start to find some semblance of consistency. But the stakes are higher now that Harper is out. He could hit third on most nights if the Phillies take Stott out of the leadoff spot. His typical magic with runners in scoring position has faded this year. He had a .906 OPS with RISP last year. It’s down to .701 this year. Maybe that’s an area where the Phillies can reasonably expect positive regression.
The same goes with J.T. Realmuto and his perplexing platoon splits. He has a decent .788 OPS against righties this season, and a .348 OPS against lefties. There has to be some evening out. Whether that leads to better overall production, or a typical Realmuto late-season hot streak, remains to be seen.
But after three straight one-run losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and two straight 2-1 losses with the starting pitcher throwing seven innings, there should be some level of embarrassment shared across the entire lineup. Maybe there is the inevitable feeling within the group that things will turn. That’s the healthy way to look at it from the inside, but on the outside, it’s fair to question whether the pieces that surround Turner, Harper and Schwarber are good enough for a team with championship aspirations.
